When the epidemic hits the most vulnerable ... developing countries are heading towards a disaster because of "Corona"

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The emerging epidemic of Corona virus began mainly in developed countries, and in theory it is better equipped to deal with its consequences - be it China, South Korea, Singapore, or Italy. Although they also struggle to try to adapt, these countries enjoy relative wealth, strong political institutions and systems, and fairly effective medical systems according to international standards. And if anything close to what these countries witnessed struck poorer or conflict-torn nations, the effect could be Overwhelming. Unfortunately, that moment may not be very far: India, Pakistan, Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Nigeria and South Africa each witness hundreds, sometimes thousands, of cases in advance. As experience of many of the current hotspots with “Covid 19” shows, only a narrow distance can separate a country from a flood.

So far, it is still unclear to what extent the disease has spread to the least developed countries, as it is not conducting tests sufficiently - if at all - to investigate the virus. Many of them may survive the outbreak, although there is no sound scientific justification for the possibility of this occurring yet. The virus can be significantly seasonal and less transmissible in warmer and humid climates, however, as yet there is little evidence to support this. Seasonality is a feature embedded in viruses, which may give people the opportunity to develop partial immunity, at least against it. In an environment in which the population is somewhat pre-fortified, it is likely that

Changes in temperature and humidity affect the virus's ability to spread. However, in the case of the emerging coronavirus, such partial immunity is still completely lost. Singapore, despite its always warmer and humid climate, was one of the first affected countries. Any weather impact on the Corona virus is likely to be modest at best, so that the disaster only delays more than it prevents it.

The bottom line is that "Covid-19" will almost certainly hit developing countries. The current low numbers of infections in these countries are due either to a lack of monitoring of cases, or to the time lag between the time the virus first spread and the time it begins to appear. And when it really strikes, it will do with the intention of revenge; As these countries bring together all the most effective risk factors. Its basic health infrastructure is insufficient. It often lacks clean running water. It also has high population density and family coexistence structures that hinder physical separation. And when workers are completely dependent on Their wages to survive and the government cannot afford to compensate the difference, the cost of closing the business becomes beyond imagination. As the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abi Ahmed pointed out in the Financial Times, even a short layoff in agriculture or harvesting could have devastating consequences for the food supply in his country. And all this will inevitably be exacerbated by the large global economic slowdown that awaits ahead, which will strike the fragile states severely, and do more harm to their resilience and ability to resist.

In the United States, it is estimated that approximately five to ten percent of Covid-19 patients need hospitalization and treatment in intensive care units. In most of the poorest countries, there is an acute shortage of intensive care beds even under normal conditions.

The United States has approximately 33 beds in intensive care units per 100,000 people. But this number drops by about two beds per 100,000 in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The situation is more serious in sub-Saharan Africa: Zambia has 0.6 beds of intensive care unit per 100,000 people; The Gambia has 0.4; Uganda has 0.1. And if the epidemic has struck these countries or any other country like them, It is almost certain that it will face a sudden wave of cases that will sweep its health care systems. As a result, the death rate from Covid-19 - which is currently estimated in the richer countries at between 0.25 and 3 per cent - could be much higher in poor countries. And since overworked hospitals will not be able to care for people with other treatable medical conditions, the overall death rate will also be higher.

Just do the math: if nothing changes, the possibility of millions of deaths will not be far from real.

It is known that some risk factors ”

Covid 19- "known, such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, or high blood pressure, is more prevalent in high-income countries. Communities with large ages are likely to suffer the worst consequences of the disease, while many developing countries tend to have a younger population. Has been Combined, these facts mean that the virus will hit low-income countries less severely. However, again any potential advantage on these grounds will be slight.

Obesity and cardiovascular disease are present in poor countries, whose populations also have to face a number of other health problems and environmental conditions that exacerbate lethality of the virus - from chronic malnutrition, to HIV (AIDS), to tuberculosis, smoking, and poor quality. The air. Even the young people themselves are at some risk: Covid-19 can be deadly for people in their twenties, especially where there is a noticeable lack of urgent medical care.

Covid 19 will definitely hit developing countries

Any money saved for these countries should be spent wisely. An increase in the supply of personal protective equipment to protect health-care workers appears to be quite reasonable. By contrast, trying to significantly boost the capabilities of existing ICUs - by providing ventilators, for example - is likely to be misleading. Given the scale of the challenge, The scale of the challenge should be a priority to ensure that poor countries can identify infected individuals and people they have been in contact with, and ensure that those with relatively mild symptoms can be diagnosed in test centers - or, ideally, in homes rather than seeking Get hospital care. This strategy is the best way to relieve stress on already tense health systems and save lives. To implement them, biotechnology companies, nonprofits, and international health organizations must join forces to develop and distribute low-cost screening tools.

However, if humanitarian considerations are not sufficient alone to establish the issue of assistance, then practical considerations should be sufficient. The epidemic that knows no boundaries will have repercussions that ignore the borders between nations as well. No matter how effective border closings are, they will never be able to contain the virus completely - there will inevitably be a leak, which will allow the virus to return to the areas it was eradicated. Overcoming only "Covid-19" in some places will remain a short-term success if the disease is not eliminated everywhere.

Even outside the medical field, the indirect effects of the epidemic are likely to leak from one country to another. Many developing countries can experience heavy losses in death toll, economic collapse, unemployment and poverty. It could The resulting social unrest takes many forms, from violent conflict within countries to massive refugee flows, the growth of organized crime, or the activities of terrorist groups that benefit from widespread chaos - each of which could ultimately affect Europe and the United States. There may be a crisis of mythical proportions lurking along the road, or it may ignite ashes in advance, invisible - but not less powerful. And for the richer countries, helping the developing world get past the immediate impact of Coffid-19 and its costs is not just an act of human altruism. It is an imperative self-imperative.

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